October 10, 2003
Emerging Powers
For anyone trying to imagine what a world where the United States is no longer the unrivalled "hyperpower" looks like, Goldman Sachs is predicting that the economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China will overtake the G7. Brad Delong disagrees
Brad DeLong disagrees:
Fifty years is a long time. Hong Kong is testament to the potent combination of Chinese entrepreneurship and British rule-of-law. Even if China's democratization is 10 years off, there's no doubt China will one day rival the U.S. in economic power. (For a taste of the future, next time you use Google check off the "English-Only" results and see how many pages come up in Chinese).
For anyone trying to imagine what a world where the United States is no longer the unrivalled "hyperpower" looks like, Goldman Sachs is predicting that the economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China will overtake the G7. Brad Delong disagrees
Brad DeLong disagrees:
"I would bet that China is likely to have a real income level equal to half and that India is likely to have a real income level equal to a third that of the United States in fifty years, but both those are means of distributions that have long and large lower tails. Political--and economic--catastrophe in both is a real live possibility."
Fifty years is a long time. Hong Kong is testament to the potent combination of Chinese entrepreneurship and British rule-of-law. Even if China's democratization is 10 years off, there's no doubt China will one day rival the U.S. in economic power. (For a taste of the future, next time you use Google check off the "English-Only" results and see how many pages come up in Chinese).
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